Friday, May 08, 2009

Mas Selamat's Escape - Let's see whose theory was the closest


Last year I blogged about 'The Great Mas Selamat Escape' and speculated on the route he might have taken. Some readers have also put up their theories. Now that Mas Selamat has been caught, we can finally see whose theory was the closest.

1) My theory was that he escaped (with help) to Bukit Brown Cemetery and then to the forests of MacRitchies Reservoir where he hid for some time and survived with help from his friends.

2) YG who also blogged about this here, is of the same opinion.

3) Peter thinks he got onto the PIE and was whizzed off by a waiting car to either East Coast or Malayan Railway.

4) The police probably thought he was hiding in the Malcolm Road areas and concentrated their search there in the initial hours. They got a tip-off from a member of the public who saw someone looking like Mas Selamat there.

5) One reader said he was probably dead and the escape story was just a cover up.

23 comments:

Icemoon said...

I'm interested to know whether he used the rolls of toilet paper to break his fall. Haha.

Wong K.S revealed he swam across the straits using an improvised flotation device.

peter said...

If this was really "true" as alleged by Mas himself during investigation, then I should think very hard whether our coastal defense against intrusions or "escape from Singapore" is fool-proof. Coastal patrols/surveillance carried out by the police, SAF or PSA?

At this point in time, I don't buy story. Our coastal surveillance is so good, so how can someone escape from Singapore?

yg said...

peter, the coast guards cannot be everywhere all the time. in fact, i rarely see our police boats patrolling the coastline off kranji.

Lam Chun See said...

Looks like we were all wrong regarding one point - that he had help. Apparently he did it all by himself. I think this chap is highly intelligent, and very well-trained.

Seen This Scene That said...

Just sharing my thoughts. I consider that MSK had 'help' - the various lapses in security for his escape from Sg, and help from elements overseas to hide so long. We'll have to wait when he is handed over to get more answers.

Icemoon said...

That time they got the security officer from Whitney to simulate an escape. This time can they get somebody to simulate a 'pai-kar' swim across the strait?

yg has a point. Maybe MSK escaped from our northwestern coastline. Historically that WWII invasion point is narrow and facing Skudai where he was caught.

I'd be amused if he was hiding with the monitor lizards at yg's favourite Sungei Buloh haha.

Anonymous said...

Dear all,
Please read articles at onlinecitzen, there were other school of thoughts and comments.
Regards
pehsk

Victor said...

The Marine Police has advanced night-vision cameras which can spot illegal immigrants or terrorists swimming in our waterways at night. However, they (the police) cannot be everywhere so protection can never be 100%.

yg said...

victor, to escape detection one can actually swim under the surface using a breathing tube (snorkel). i suspect this has been done before.

peter said...

If he did swim across, then he might have received assistance. He is "pai ka".

I suspect he took the night train service when KTM stopped at Bukit Timah Railway Station. There is no check here and the next check is JB Station - so easy to hide under coach.

Zen said...

I am always wondering how is that the Indonesian security authorities are able to nab JI members despite of its vast territory (thousands of islands)and conclude that their 'infomer system' must have been quite up-to-date. Hence I suggested to our feedback unit to do likewise i.e. 'to sweeten the bait' basing on my ferment belief that 'under the entice of huge monetary rewards, a few brave souls would risk their necks to render their 'required services'. Now the official statement comes out to say that the delayed announcement of selamat arrest is in part 'to protect the source of the information'. However, whatever theories propounded, still credits should be given to the ISD personnel of both countries.

Icemoon said...

Peter, that's quite improbable. Read my latest blog for the reason.

peter said...

I am not saying I am right because I did not "investigate" nor "interview" Mas. Even if I did I am sure he won't tell me. Everything I say is speculative just like everybody is saying these days.

After reading your blog, I just wonder whether Mas will do like u and I to join in the orderly queue at the Tg Pagar Station, come down to get his passport stamped at Woodlands upon leaving Singapore and then getting off at JB

peter said...

Night vision cameras - you mean I can also buy from Sim Lim Square and conduct some peep show of my own at reclaiemd land....hahaha!

Vicotr, got lobang?

I think AWARE episode more interesting than Mas. At least we can see the outcome.

Lam Chun See said...

Well, we still don't know how he got out of Spore. But we certainly know how he will come back. And we are all waiting to say "Selamat Datang" to him when he does.

Anonymous said...

If some of you have watched the "reconstructed escape route" at wayangparty, you'll realise how dangerous it gets in times of war. Perfect for amphibious operations by our enemy.

household name said...

For me, the only thing that is 'confirmed' is that he is alive (hence the conspiracy theories about him being dead will themselves just have to die).

As for all other 'information', only Mas Selamat himself will know the truth.

Anonymous said...

Well, he might be yet another Tom Clancy novel or Spielberg's inspiration. We have Papillon, Great Escape, maybe one day there'll be Bridge Over the Great Straits or A Bridge So Damn Far in our theatres.

fr said...

Everyone has his own theory and thinks probably he is right because he is being very logical. But sometimes the truth is something not so readily believed.

Some don't believe he swam across and offer good reasons but that could be actually what he did.

fighting fit said...

Dunno how well-trained he is but I suspect he's quite intelligent.

In the immediate days after his escape, the coastal patrols must have been heavier and more thorough than usual. But if he did slip into the waters, and paddled across the causeway aided by some improvised flotation devices, he probably did it very slowly. The police have been known to use night vision and maybe even thermal vision. But these guys use them on boats. A fugitive in the water will see boats coming from far. When that happens, he has to stop paddling or kicking, and most likely stay underwater aided by breathing tube. He can only come up slowly to check if the boat has left the area.

Night vision aids have their limitations. I think cloudy dark nights can affect their usefulness. If patrol officers on boats don't get their suspicion aroused seeing a clump of floating rubbish in the water, then they'll probably miss a hiding submerged fugitive hanging on to that.

Thermal imaging works better than night vision goggles but still I think a body underwater cannot be detected easily cos the water temperature is cool. So unless the the fugitive comes close to the surface or above water, he is hard to spot using thermal imaging.

The lesson is for coast guard officers is to get suspicious of clumps of floating rubbish, no matter what size. It can hide a person underneath and his breathing or snorkeling tube.

Anonymous said...

One more speculative comment: Immediately after his escape from Whitley detention centre, he was action all the way to get out of Sg in the shortest time possible. He could take a bus up north (all the Sembwang bus no; after getting money from some people ie help, probably from the Association of visually handicapped Association ? sighted there right) and upon reaching northern coast of sg, he looked for the shortest strait of water between sg & Malaysia, and swim across with his customised gadget... he had brute strength, determination,luck and IQ and the window period of about 5 hours of delay in announcement and response, courtesy of our MHA..so how to sight from the coast using infra red ??

COMMON SENSE said...

or if he 'escaped' during his 'family visit' they could have hitched a car from a specified location and driven to the second link (POSSIBLE IN 20 MINU
TES) BEFORE OUR FRIENDS IN WHITLEY COULD ALERT OUR FRIENDS IN TUAS AND WOODLANDS.THE FLOATATION DEVICE STORY IS JUST PLAIN BULLSHIT!

qa said...

I believe it is possible for him to swim across with a floatation device.